As the global electric vehicle (EV) transition accelerates – with global electric vehicle (EV) sales hitting 1.2 million in February 2025, marking a 50 per cent increase compared to the same month last year – competition over the minerals needed to power this shift is intensifying.
According to Fastmarkets, China currently controls 95 per cent of the world’s battery-grade graphite and dominates 76 per cent of the global EV market. While this has raised concerns in Western markets, particularly after China introduced tighter export permits on certain graphite products in late 2023, it is also a reflection of how quickly China recognised the strategic importance of EV supply chains – and invested accordingly.
In contrast, the US and Europe have been slower to act. This lag has left their industries more vulnerable to changes, such as rising tariffs or supply disruptions. Donald Trump’s recent proposal for a 25 per cent tariff on all vehicle imports – including from Canada, Japan and the EU – has only added to concerns around future trade and production volatility.
But tariffs and trade restrictions are not a long-term fix. To build a truly resilient EV future, governments and businesses must focus on innovation – and one promising path lies in investing in next-generation materials.
Graphite production made better
For decades, production of graphite – a key anode material in lithium-ion batteries - has remained largely unchanged, relying on high-temperature, multi-week, carbon-intensive processes that are only viable in regions with affordable energy and well-developed supply chains.
China accounts for 77 per cent of natural (mined) graphite production, over 95 per cent of synthetic graphite production, and nearly 100 per cent of graphite refining. The country’s dominance in this sector cannot be overstated – the country holds over 95 per cent market share specifically for battery-grade graphite, creating a precarious situation for Western economies.
This reliance on imported graphite comes at a cost. According to Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, the US is expected to face ongoing shortages of critical minerals through 2030, with no domestic source of flake graphite forecasted for that time. Thus, the need to diversify supply chains and reduce dependency has never been more urgent.
Fortunately, the tide is turning. Biographite, for instance, made from low-cost renewable forestry by-products using a low-temperature, carbon-sequestering process, is proving to be an effective alternative. Biographite technology gives OEMs access to a supply of competitively priced high grade battery graphite that is produced domestically, completely rewriting the tariff equation when it comes to this critical battery mineral. It also significantly reduces the carbon footprint of battery production by eliminating emissions associated with traditional mined and synthetic graphite production and long-distance transport involved.
Thinking local: the benefits of local production of battery materials
Automakers are under mounting pressure to scale EV production while keeping costs down, but the path many are taking is not financially or environmentally sustainable.
Ford, for example, recently announced plans to ramp up EV output even as it braces for a projected $5bn loss in its EV division by 2025. Much of this comes as a direct consequence of expensive battery inputs and complex global supply chains. Similarly, other automakers, including General Motors and Volkswagen, have also reported financial challenges in their EV divisions, impacting their ability to meet demand.
Yet opportunities to rethink how critical minerals like graphite are sourced remain largely untapped. Alongside the environmental benefits, transitioning to locally produced, carbon-negative alternatives like biographite will help manufacturers significantly lower production costs thanks to a readily available, cheap biomass feedstock. This cost advantage, paired with biographite's high performance, helps maintain top-tier performance while slashing import and freight expenses as well as sidestep trade risks.
Ultimately, by embracing domestically sourced battery materials, OEMs can not only boost long-term resilience and cost efficiency but also bring key components of EV production back home, they can strengthen control over their supply chains, and given biographite’s impressive environmental benefits, lay the groundwork to manufacture a truly carbon-zero vehicle.
Long term vision: strengthening domestic production
Beyond the auto industry, graphite plays an important role in powering the broader economy. And while tariffs may offer temporary relief, they don’t address the root issue: over-reliance on a single country for critical minerals.
To build long-term resilience, countries must move beyond reactive measures and take a more strategic approach to critical mineral policy. This includes investing in domestic production capacity, supporting innovation in cleaner, more efficient processing methods, and creating the infrastructure needed to scale alternative materials. Promising steps have already been taken, such as the Inflation Reduction Act, which incentivises local mineral sourcing and strengthens domestic mining in the US, as well as the EU’s efforts to streamline permitting and fund strategic projects. However, these actions alone are not enough.
Looking ahead, investment in innovation is what will unlock the cost, quality, and sustainability advantages needed to break free from today’s concentrated supply chains. And while the challenge is complex, breakthroughs like biographite show that the solutions may be closer – and more viable – than many realise.
Vincent Ledoux-Pedailles, CCO at CarbonScape
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