The Heavy-Duty Vehicle (HDV) sector, which includes Heavy Goods Vehicles (HGV), refuse trucks and bus and coach contributes to more than one-fifth of overall greenhouse gas emissions in the UK for transport. This is a challenge and opportunity for the UK industry to innovate and accelerate zero emission vehicles and technologies. APC Insight forecasts the UK will produce almost 35,000 Heavy Goods Vehicles (HGVs), refuse trucks and buses and coaches by 2035, with at least 75% of these being zero-emission at the tailpipe.
In 2021, the previous UK Government announced a commitment to end the sale of new, non[1]zero-emission HGVs weighing less than or equal to 26 tonnes from 2035, and from 2040, all new HGVs must be fully zero emission at the exhaust. Equivalent commitments on buses and coaches are being discussed with consultations. APC’s insight analysis derived from automotive experts, databases and supplier engagements predicts around 50% of the HDVs in 2035 will be battery-electric driven. There will be sizeable vehicles powered by hydrogen fuel cell and non-fossil fuel Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) technologies too. These predicted zero emission vehicles results in enormous opportunity to establish and expand the clean technology automotive supply chain in the UK.
The £2.4 billion opportunity:
The ‘UK HDV Supply Chain Opportunities to 2035’ report, recently published by the APC highlights significant opportunities across a range of high-value components for zero[1]emission HDVs manufactured in the UK, such as battery packs, electric drive units (EDUs), fuel cell systems, hydrogen tanks, and high-power converters. Across these five strategic technologies there are opportunities for UK supply chain worth over £2.4 bn to produce for local and export needs. Batteries and fuel cell systems alone contribute to nearly £1.7bn of the total market opportunity.
The £2.4 billion revenue opportunity includes nearly £1 billion worth of export potential in battery electric value chain and fuel cell technology systems for the UK. This presents a great platform for the UK-based OEMs and suppliers to export next generation zero emission technologies globally. It becomes even more important with the recently ratified EU mandates for HDVs with a target reduction of 90% CO2-e by 2040.
Where are the unique innovation opportunities in developing zero emission HDVs?
The unique operational requirements and drive cycle challenges for HDVs provides further innovation and investment focus on dedicated battery packs and chemistries for reducing the total cost of operation and improving widespread adoption of zero emission vehicles. There are opportunities for UK innovation, particularly around development of advanced solid-state and sodium-ion based batteries that are suited to the HDV application needs.
Thermal management is a key issue for heavy-duty electric vehicles, and developing battery management systems and materials that predict and prevent thermal runaway incidents will be important for reliable adoption of xEV vehicles. There are key opportunities for the UK supply chain in development of advanced electric transmission axles and integrated powertrain systems that bring higher efficiency and improve overall experience for the drivers.
What are the opportunities in hydrogen technologies?
Proton-Exchange Membrane Fuel Cells (PEMFC) are regarded as the fuel cell of choice for automotive and transport applications as they have comparative advantages over others in efficiency and compactness. There is growing interest and intention to enable Higher Temperature (HT) operational capability for a PEMFC system to enable heavy transport applications as it simplifies the need for complex cooling systems, reducing the need for higher weight and off-highway vehicles. UK has promising capability in fuel cell stack and component developments and could be used to target HDV centric technology innovations.
As part of the hydrogen fuel cell ecosystem, there are opportunities to invest and grow the supply chain to cater hydrogen storage tanks that can increase the strength and reduce the cost of operation. The fuel cell supply chain is still in early maturity stage in the UK, with strong presence of hydrogen supply chain actors (more than 250) representing future potential for scaling up heavy-duty automotive applications.
Some challenges…
There are challenges in realising the value-add from all the above zero emission technologies, but collaboration could be key. Opportunity for industry stakeholders to collaborate with the government, suppliers, and start-ups to extract maximum predicted value, by participating in R&D competitions and accelerators. Key part of puzzle is the need to understand the energy infrastructure requirements to meet the 2040 zero-emission vehicles commitment. Perhaps most importantly, UK must accelerate the development of a ‘minimum viable’ charging and hydrogen refuelling infrastructure network for heavy goods vehicles and coaches, for the projected 2035 and 2040 demand.
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