Guest blog: Decarbonising transport - bust or boom for the automotive industry

Depending on which headlines you follow, it may seem like the UK's automotive industry has been teetering on the brink of either bust or boom for some time.

As part of the Advanced Propulsion Centre UK (APC) Future of Technology series of events, we wanted to explore what a range of experts thought about this dichotomy.

The fact is, the UK has made significant strides in adopting zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs) and electrification is likely to become the dominant solution for decarbonised transport. But there will be growing pains along the way, some of which are being felt now.

Will it lead to bust or boom for the UK’s automotive industry?

The answer is…it depends. Of course, your perspective on the electrification debate hinges on where you stand on a range of factors. 

What is clear is that a system-level view of the transport system is required. The transport sector is not doing well for decarbonisation. Compared to others, it has the worst in terms of renewable energy as a proportion of consumption, standing at 6% compared to the electricity grid mix of around 43%.

At the event, Professor Patricia Thornley (Aston University, Department for Transport’s Science Advisory Council) argued that existing fossil-fuel infrastructure can be re-purposed to help get to net zero by 2050 more quickly.

“There are no silver bullets.” This means looking seriously at using low-carbon fuels alongside battery electrification.

By recognising the importance of resilient supply chains, we are better able to reach a balance of energy sources for transport as it changes over time – whilst concurrently building the capacity of the UK to generate low-carbon electricity.

John Cooper (former director general of FuelsEurope) agreed. 90% of all transport is fuelled through liquid fuels and there is currently no strategy to decarbonise this.

The role of synthesised, non-fossil fuels should play a significant part in our net zero economies of the future, but as it stands, the regulations for cars and vans are an anomaly - most other sectors class sustainable fuels as net-zero CO2. Your industry will need to close… but first please make more diesel…”

That sounds like a bust, so far.

HGVs are very carbon intensive. Brendan Bilton (CFO, Element2), shared his ambition to see heavy-duty transport de-fossilised, but declared he is: “NOT a hydrogen evangelist.”

It’s key to get rid of fossil fuels, yes, and the decarbonisation of transport for the commercial vehicle sector must consider the right fuel for the right job.

Herein lies the opportunity (and optimism) to replace many of the 500,000 HGVs and 4.5 million diesels on the road in the UK.

Automotive industry views were represented by Andy Poole (Head of Environment, SMMT). Their members are committed to electrification, enticing customers into ZEVs, but are unable to keep this level of intervention going without market stimulation.

The automotive sector doesn’t operate in a vacuum, rather multiple sectors are responsible for the success of the transition, which needs many parts of the economy to work together. “We’re all in”.

However, there’s a pressing need to: ease regulatory burden, dictate the delivery of public infrastructure, boost ZEV demand and a proportionate approach to the period 2031-2035 under the ZEV mandate.

By considering these recommendations, Poole believes there will be up to 2 million new ZEVs on UK roads by 2028.

Surely that’s nearing boom-level.

Status quo, or something else?

What if we moved away from electrifying the vehicles we’re familiar with, and thought about fundamental shifts to the transport system?

Enter the postal worker. Royal Mail, who deliver to 33 million addresses across the UK, is looking at renewing its fleet. Mark Riley (Delivery Process Design Manager) is tackling the challenges of decarbonising over 40,000 vans. “We’ve got think differently about delivery.”

His team are trialling cleaner vehicles that deliver mail and operational efficiency: from a postie’s feet to cargo bikes, mini-vans to electric trucks, mail can be moved without the need for tail-pipe emissions. There are cost, durability, and operational challenges, but thinking differently will allow Royal Mail to decarbonise its fleet.

This kind of approach is how principal engineer for micromobility from WMG, Mark Urbanowski views the disparity between London and the rest of the UK for cycling infrastructure.

Londoners’ cycling has reached a critical mass, where journeys by bike equate to about a third of Tube journeys. What if other parts of the country were able to take a third of cars off the road, for example? While there are benefits to taking micromobility options, getting people out of their cars for their 72% of journeys under 5 miles is a challenge, due to lack of appropriate infrastructure, policy, societal acceptance, and incentives.

With the right intervention, the UK could follow other countries recognising micromobility options, “anything smaller than a car,” as viable alternatives. If this happens, we could see a boom shift to other manufacturing sectors. Germans buy 2 million e-bikes per year, supporting high-value industry to the tune of €8 billion. In France it’s 1 million and the UK…150k.

“What will automation do for emissions?” According to Ianto Guy (Consultant for TRL), automation will not reduce energy use in all cases, due to the additional computational needs of the robot driver.

Where carbon benefits will be realised is rather use-case dependant. Automating commercial fleet vehicles could unlock alternative vehicle configurations, enabling decarbonised transport of our goods.

Finally, Felicity Kelly (Head of Connected Mobility, Motability Operations) emphasised the EV revolution is happening, but infrastructure is rarely accessible by users with restricted mobility. She asked, “Are we building a future where anyone can participate?” The transition to electrification, connected or automated, needs to be accessible by all. Without achieving this, we will have failed?

Over to you

Considering all of this, we asked participants of the Future of Technology event if decarbonising transport will be a bust or a boom – 76% of respondents said boom. What would you say?

Daniel Fung is Head of Strategy and Planning at the APC (Advanced Propulsion Centre)