If skills shortages weren’t desperate before the pandemic, they are now. Customer demand for flying continues to grow, and the whole system needs to be transformed to meet 2050 net zero carbon emissions and biodiversity targets. Plenty to do, but who’s going to do it?
First of all, aviation needs an image change. The careers offered need to regain the desirability they once had. The good news is that the solution to many of the problems we face are only hidden in the problem: the potential for change that’s coming with the sustainability revolution itself.
In a world searching for leadership on decarbonisation, for action over principles, aviation has the chance to demonstrate what can be achieved in one of the most challenging of all industry sectors. Flight operators and aviation manufacturers - rightly or wrongly - are foremost in the public consciousness when it comes to polluters.That means the dramatic changes that can (and must) be delivered, will have a similarly exaggerated impact on perceptions. Aviation as the role model for a new world, what can be done against the odds. More people, and younger generations in particular are going to want to be one of the change-makers, doing ‘good’.
This was one of the key issues raised by the first Global Sustainable Aviation Exchange (GSAE) workshop event that took place in February 2024 at the University of Waterloo in Canada, focused on skills shortages and workforce sustainability. The GSAE has been put together by Cranfield University and ATAG, with Waterloo and Khalifa Universities, to address the key challenges facing the aviation industry in meeting its 2050 targets on climate change and biodiversity, with a focus on delivery and scale-up by 2030. GSAE is being supported by ICAO, CSIRO, WTTC and IATA.
There are two strands to the skills shortage issue. One is around immediate needs. A new civil aviation professional will be needed every four minutes according to estimates: including 300,000 more pilots, 300,000 more maintenance engineers and 600,000 more cabin crew over the next ten years. Then there are the roles that we don’t even know we need yet — some kind of digital aviation environment, yes, but alongside which particular sustainable fuel and aircraft technologies? Electric, hydrogen and a range of hybrids.
The common thread will be more familiarity with areas such as AI, autonomous systems and carbon management. In particular we need people with skills to deliver on immediate wins while the major long-term solutions are developed. Relatively simple changes can deliver immediate gains around sustainability. The sector has met safety standards, as it must, by being ‘wasteful’ in terms of pulling aircraft out of service and looser scheduling. It’s no good filling up aircraft with Sustainable Aviation Fuels if they are spending longer and longer circling airports for slots to land. The use of data analytics and AI software is being used - and could be used more widely - to optimise flight routes, arrival times, infrastructure and hangar use and for predictive maintenance. This can have a significant impact on the environment in terms of fuel use and the impact of contrails. Research between MIT and Delta Airlines has demonstrated the potential for real-time tracking of areas with contrail risk to inform re-routing. Trials and simulations have shown that 70-90% of all heat-trapping contrails could be avoided through flight and altitude adjustments.
The challenge now is that data analytics, machine learning and AI are exactly the same pools of skills that many other industries are also wanting to fish. Again, aviation needs to be more active in promoting its image as an industry undergoing an exciting revolution, that needs different kinds of people. We need to broaden the talent pool by appealing to under-represented groups; and opening up more opportunities for work-integrated learning, combining studies with workplace learning.
More than anything else, there will need to be more collaboration between industry and universities over joint schemes. That doesn’t mean colluding - it’s important to have different ideas and perspectives. No-one knows quite what the future will be like. When IATA and the School of International Futures looked at drivers of change for the aviation industry 2018, few readers were paying much attention to the things like global pandemics or the threat from geopolitical instability. Yet the last five years have highlighted how significant these factors became.
Universities have a special role to play. Because of the level of objectivity they can bring, separate from industry but also working closely together — which helps to keep research ‘grounded’, and in all the right ways, making sure we stay evidence-based. And as educators, not just in terms of training, but in helping to understand the bigger picture around the best ways to manage the change and transition, including the skills that will be needed.
The reality is that meeting the 2050 targets means delivering on upskilling and opening up new talent streams over the next decade - so now. The GSAE is important in encouraging collaboration between industry and universities, encouraging new projects and research that ensures we’re making the best choices - and demonstrates exactly why aviation isn’t what it used to be. There are huge technological changes on the horizon, a determined drive towards sustainability: meaning it’s the best sector for careers that make a difference.
Professor Graham Braithwaite, Cranfield University, www.cranfield.ac.uk. If you would like to register your interest in GSAE, please contact: andi.thompson@cranfield.ac.uk
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