Solid fundamentals

Bombardier has released its annual aircraft market forecasts for the business and commercial aircraft industry, predicting strong long-term growth following a period of market uncertainty.

For the period up until 2018, the group forecasts that business-jet manufacturers will deliver a total of 11,500 aircraft with revenues of around $256bn (£155bn) for the industry driven by a return to economic growth.

However, in the short term, Bombardier believes that the business-aircraft market faces the challenges of high pre-owned inventories, difficult market conditions and negative public perceptions, resulting in fewer orders during the start of the 10-year period.

The group believes that the jet industry is currently strong and will remain so in the long term. As a result, Bombardier said that it intends to maintain its focus on strengthening its position in this area.

At the end of 2008, the worldwide business-jet fleet included approximately 13,600 aircraft. Overall the business-jet industry is expected to increase by a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of around 5.8 per cent.

In the commercial sector, Bombardier estimates that between 2009 and 2028 there will be 12,400 aircraft deliveries in the 20- to 149-seat market, worth approximately $589bn.

Mairead Lavery, vice-president of strategy and business development at Bombardier Aerospace, said: ‘The financial turbulence being felt around the globe has placed a significant focus on the challenges facing the aviation industry, particularly within the business jet sector.

‘The sharp downturn in global economies in late 2008 precipitated a sharp decline in demand that affected aircraft manufacturers, suppliers and operators. With demand for air travel closely linked to economic growth, we anticipate continued volatility in the aerospace industry in the near term.

‘However, despite the current recession, the market fundamentals are strong in the long term. As the world begins to emerge from this economic crisis, demand should gradually return and future prospects remain solid.’