Donald Trump won't be inaugurated as President of the US for two months, and the only guides to what the attitude of his administration might be towards overseas trade can only be gauged from the personnel he's appointing and the characteristically inflammatory contents of hisTwitter stream. Perhaps unsurprisingly for an issue that has caught the attention of so much of the world, we received a very strong response for last week's poll, with 940 respondents.
The largest group of respondents, 38 per cent, thought Trump so unpredictable that it was impossible to draw any conclusions about what his Presidency might mean for UK industry. The next largest group trusted to the inherent inertia of international markets, saying that market forces would rein Trump in so much that whatever he wanted to do, he wouldn't have any effect. An optimistic 21 per cent thought the Trump era would see an increase in Anglo-American trade; but 15 per cent took the most pessimistic option offered, saying that the protectionism he espoused during the election campaign would damage the global economy. Only 3 per cent declined to pick an option.
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