Harvard study models hydrogen for China

China is the world’s largest producer of iron, steel, cement, and building materials, categorised as hard-to-abate (HTA) sectors when it comes to decarbonisation. Hydrogen could play a key role in delivering the high temperature and chemical feedstocks these sectors require, as well as helping decarbonise HTA transport sectors such as shipping and haulage.

The study, carried out by the Harvard-China Project on Energy, Economy and Environment, used an integrated modelling approach to evaluate the potential use of clean hydrogen across China’s energy system and economy, in order to meet the country’s 2060 net-zero target. Modelling both supply and demand across all HTA sectors, the research found that a widespread application of clean hydrogen could help China achieve carbon neutrality cost-effectively compared to a scenario without clean hydrogen production and use. Clean hydrogen could save $1.72 trillion in investment costs and avoid a 0.13% loss in China’s aggregate GDP (2020-2060) compared to a pathway without it. The work is published in Nature Energy.

“Filling this research gap will help draw a clearer roadmap for China’s CO2 emission reductions,” sailed author of the paper Xi Yang, a researcher at the Harvard-China Project. “Our goal with this study was to envision a role for clean hydrogen in China’s energy economy, which can then provide a reference for other developing economies with large heavy industrial and transportation sectors.”

The researchers also examined the type of clean hydrogen—green or blue—that would be most cost-effective. Their study found that the average cost of China’s green hydrogen could fall to $2/kg by 2037 and $1.2/kg by 2050, by which time it will be much more cost-effective than blue hydrogen ($1.9/kg).

“China has rich untapped resources of solar and wind energy, both onshore and offshore,” said study co-author Chris P Nielsen, executive director of the Harvard-China Project. “These resources give China advantages towards developing green hydrogen for use in its industrial and transportation sectors.”