Scientists at Reading University studied how hotter air – which makes it harder for planes to generate lift due to reduced density - affects aircraft performance during take-off at 30 sites across Europe. Their findings are detailed in Aerospace.
The research focused on the Airbus A320, a familiar single-aisle aircraft used for short and medium-haul flights. By the 2060s, some airports with shorter runways may need to reduce their maximum take-off weight by the equivalent of approximately 10 passengers per flight during summer months.
In a statement, lead author Dr Jonny Williams said: “A warming world has an impact on people and businesses worldwide, and we are now showing one way it could increase the price of your summer holiday. Flying to Spain, Italy or Greece could get more expensive as flights carry fewer people due to climate change.
“Hot summer days when smaller airports have to reduce their weight will get more common. Our research shows conditions which used to happen about one day in a summer may happen three or four a week by the 2060s.
“Aviation is sometimes singled out as a significant source of the greenhouse gases that are causing the planet to heat up. Our study provides yet more evidence that aviation is itself not immune to the impacts of climate change.”
Of the sites studied, the findings suggest that Chios, Greece; Pantelleria, Italy; Rome Ciampino, Italy; and San Sebastian, Spain will be the destinations most affected.
These airports have shorter runways, so airlines cannot operate them at the maximum weight set by the manufacturer. Future increases in heatwaves will exacerbate the problem for airlines, forcing them to reduce aircraft weights and profit margins.
Larger airports like London Heathrow and Gatwick have runways long enough to accommodate the A320 in extreme heat, but may face challenges with larger long haul aircraft.
According to the team, the problem may also affect airport operations beyond reducing passenger numbers. Airlines might need to reschedule flights to cooler parts of the day, and runway maintenance could increase as surfaces degrade faster in extreme heat.
Future studies will examine how other factors like humidity and changing wind patterns may further impact take-off performance.
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